Author Topic: The Future  (Read 958 times)

iancom

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The Future
« on: 18 May 2002, 07:03 »
This is more of an essay than a post... It wasn't originally intended to be anything more than another quick post against Microsoft, but I kept thinking of other stuff. Still, I couldn't imagine anywhere other than here as the ideal place to post it.

So, feel free to ignore it or read it, as you see fit. I would be extremely interested to hear what everyone, BSD/Linux/Mac/Microsoft/Sun/other/undecided/uninterested advocates have to say about it... naturally _constructive_ criticism only.


Today I have seen the future.

It is bright, it is exciting. It is full of people getting their work done without constant crashing and worrying about compatibility between systems. It is all that we have dreamed it should be, and more.

Over the past few weeks (well, years actually, but have never really seriously looked into it before) I have been wondering just why it is that one product (and its derivatives) in the i386 operating system marketplace should be so totally dominant, and more importantly, why it should remain so.

The reasons, until this time at least, for this phenomenon can be fairly well understood. The current dominant player in the marketplace has gained their position by way of a few mainly fortuitous circumstances.

They were the first to provide an operating system for the architecture which was amongst the first to provide serious computing power to the smaller business (ie not vastly expensive mainframes etc).

Initially, file formats, protocol standards and pretty much all communication methods for this architecture were either extremely immature or non-existent. This gave the first player in the game the obvious advantage. By the time other players entered, defacto standards had already been established. Worse still of course, these are closed-source 'standards' which a competitor must take great pains to experiment with in order to create a system which, at best, seems to comply with them. Without access to the original source code, full compliance for anyone other than the original creator is exceptionally difficult.

These arbitrarily declared 'standards' serve to further the dominance of their owners in the marketplace. If a competitor cannot adhere to these standards -- to which they are not permitted the luxury of knowing the full specifications -- they cannot compete in the marketplace since they will produce a product which is not completely compatible to most users of the architecture.

The natural progression from this is that the owner of these defacto standards will use them to promote their new standards in other areas, often by ensuring that they are _not_ compatible with competitors' products - this is business after all, and the aim of business is to generate profit.

This is one of the defining characteristics of our currently immature technological age - defacto standards. The current predisposition of the US Patent Office to grant patents for such absurd things as sideways swinging epitomizes the world's willingness to uphold the rights to ownership of anything that despite being common-sense to most people they were the first to attempt to obtain a patent for.

This age will not last long. There are many things that should genuinely be protected under patent law - the purpose of which is supposed to be to encourage investment in the development of new ideas.

I digress. The issue at hand is not really about patents as such, but is about the freedom of transferrence of information between everyone on our planet.

Yes, I admit that was quite a leap there. From running a few programs on your computer to being able to communicate unimpeded to others in one single step. Allow me to explain.

Language... It is a fascinating topic. There are many hundreds of thousands of written or spoken languages and dialects in use across the world today. There are some languages that are more widely used than others - I'm no expert in this area, but would hazard a guess at Mandarin, English, French, Cantonese, Spanish and Japanese as the major players. Languages have evolved over many hundreds - if not thousands or hundreds of thousands - of years to provide a common medium over which people in the same locality can communicate their ideas, emotions, opinions, to one another.

Imagine this - one company, one commercial entity, one profit-making organisation owns the rights to (for example) the English language. And they are entitled to charge a licence fee for its use. English is a pretty decent language. I understand it, I enjoy using it and I am completely comfortable using it. However, if I were not free to use it without editorial or financial bias from some orginisation, I would have no hesitation in learning another language that was not subject to these limitations. Not necessarily because I cannot afford to pay for using it, but because I believe no-one should have to pay to express their ideas, their innovations, their dreams, their hopes or their desires.

So - why has this commercialisation never happened to spoken language? Does anyone know of a spoken language that imposes these commercial limitations? Language has evolved within our civilisation as we know it over a period of hundreds of thousands of years, and it will continue to evolve for many hundreds of thousands of years with the sole purpose of further precipitating greater understanding between those who dwell on this earth. Who can really claim to have invented, for example, the English language? Clearly their was some person or group of people in our collective distant past that first devised a crude, but consistent, set of vocal sounds that once known by others could communicate a particular set of emotions, desires, concerns, etc.

Has anyone ever suggested that these vocal protocols be subject to license fees? Our ancestors (without exception) have developed our spoken and written language - whatever language that may be - purely because everyone needs tools with which to communicate with each other, not because there's money to be made from it.

This is an important point now. Communication for all people is an inexorable right. Access to those methods of communication for everyone are absolutely essential to maintain our society. When a person wishes to make themselves understood in another language they at least have the option to learn the other language from freely available texts. The only circumstances where they would have to expend financial resources would be if they do not wish to expend the effort learning the language for themselves and hired an interpreter.

My point here is that spoken and written language in general is in effect open source. It has taken hundreds of thousands of years to develop to the point at which we find ourselves today through nothing other than the instinctive desire of mankind to progress methods of communication to the point where we can effectively communicate with each other. Millions - even billions - of people have collaborated to make our world languages what they are today. Few have asked for any recompense other than the satisfaction of knowning that they have assisted in providing a platform upon which others might better understand each other.

What, and you may have guessed by now, I'm trying to put across here is that communication is one of the fundamental necessities of the human race. In the recent past it's been relatively easy - you write down your sentiments on paper in a particular language and if the recipent does not understand that language they can either learn that language (through freely available specifications, like a dictionary) or hire an interpreter.

Sadly, we find ourselves in the position now that electronic communications even between people who are familiar with the same actual language (ie English, Mandarin etc) are unable to understand each other because of artificial barriers erected by companies who arbitrarily maintain control of a communication system that has only survived because of a concerted effort by that company to ensure that everyone misfortunate enough to use them is able to communicate only with others who are locked into the same protocol.

The new electronic medium of which I speak is of course the Internet. It is an unprecedented medium which puts so many more people on this planet in touch with each other with -- theoretically -- no barriers other than those actual lingustic barriers. However, the defacto, as-yet-unregulated, powers mean to maintain many more barriers than mere language, to ensure that the world must use *their* software in order to communicate.

[Finally] I return to my earlier points...

Our current information age is in an exceptionally immature state. It has only been thirty years since your average man-on-the-street heard of a 'computer'.

When I was at school (no more than 15 years ago -- honest!) we didn't even have computers other than a few VIC20's and some BBC micros. A lot of my current knowledge of computers is derived from experiences with those computers and my own ZX Spectrum at about that time. However I learned a hell of a lot more from them than I suspect a lot of High School users do today since we were forced to know all the resources of the machine otherwise it may not do what we wanted it to do...

...and now most schools have fairly well equiped computer labs. Labs with computers equiped with Win[9x|NT|2K|XP]. What does this teach them? You can only develop apps for other Windows PC's?

Why will Microsoft fail?

For many hundreds of years physicists, chemists, liguistics, psycologists, etc, have been publishing the results of their research to others for no reason other than peer recogniton and the knowledge that they are helping the human race in its quest for further knowledge. The same is already happening with open sorce software, and it will not be long before this is the accepted norm.

It's only a matter of time. Free exposure of information is the norm for the scientific community, and it will continue to be, since all that matters is the progression of the sum of human knowledge.

I've said it before and I'll say it again ... none of us are really tied to a particular OS, and we can chage. For the sake of our continued right to free speech, free expression, free computing, for God's sakes please think about it!

I've seen the future and Microsoft are a bit-player. Who wants to work with a conpany that does everthing to ensure their products are only used by some particular set of user?

pkd_lives

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The Future
« Reply #1 on: 18 May 2002, 21:36 »
A most eloquent statement, for the forum. It's well paced, not the usual M$ is evil rant. You describe neatly the essence of how M$ obtained their postion, and as such should maybe be put elsewhere on this site, as a reasoned statement of all our issues with M$, so that those coming here can see there is thought not jealousy behind how we feel.

Your statements about language are very apt. And it is possibly because language existed many years before commercial attitudes, and the fact that it changes on a daily basis, that helps keep it free, in this sometimes injudicious world of ours. I believe there have been attempts to patent language, in various countries, but thankfully if they happened they failed. I agree with your views, language is the best open source comparison available to us.

As is the case in language, so it may be in software, in a hundred years it may be deemed that M$ can no longer claim proprietary rights for standards in software (although please don't let it be that long).

Part of the problem is that there are practicle limits in the world of software, but, because it is so versatile and new, people are not prepared to see them. For example. There is only so much a word processor can (should?) do, before you are just adding extras, fonts and the like, or adding new applications. Most people do not need or use most of the available features in word processors, because really it's unecessary. The world of commerce requires a perpetuating market. And so to make money these companies produce an endless supply of unecessarily updated software to run on what are basically diabolically slow computers.

I think M$, have seen this. They know that in ten years there will be no Word processor market, and probaly most basic applications (media players and browsers) will have reached a basic level that will go unaltered, except for the differences of individual companies (such as the taste of your favourite chocolate bar).

And this too is why they will fail, because they are attempting to limit ones freedom of speech, by making the access to information proprietary. With the Internet we have seen a decline in the hardcopy published word. There is now knowledge (software only as far as I am aware) that is not documented in hard form anywhere. How many coders out there have programs written by them that have no listing printed out? And this situation will only amplify (which is fine) but the way things are at the moment the laws still assume all information is available if you call a library, a university, etc. What happens when no information is available, because there are no more libraries, the word is not hard pubished, and your access to that free information is ONLY available at a price (payable to the company who owns all the standards in on-line communication) and therefore a company that can under law choose to deny you for no reason. Goverments can be voted out, are required to obey certain requirements the companies are not, and can force information to be made available, even if it is out of print.

What will be changing is the operating system. Oh may goodness how that will change. You see you may have noticed a little gem I dropped - diabolically slow processors, and yes I even mean the MACS, in this you are as gulity as all the other companies. You see the operating system controls the processor, and processors are soon going to change the way they work. The electronics and software companies must stop messing about and start building computers. What I hope will happen is that computers will have 10, 20, 40 processors EACH. Each one can work on a seperate task (true multitasking). Each processor will increase the computers computing output (I believe exponentially, not too sure, yet). Think about it, you could run a few hundred Z80's back to back, and compute at speeds obtainable today by Intel and co. The reason it's not done is basically that the operating system will have to be very tight - i.e. not M$ written. The software will also require space (serious GHz). It may be that you run a new kernel for each processor, and casacde the control. Serially you could build up a system capable of sequentailly processing code at a probably linear fashion increase, in parallel it could be exponetial. Each method has it benefits and detractions. But there are others, serially fed parallel networks, for example. And that is totally ignoring the quantum computers, that I will certainly see in my lifetime (I'll bloody design it if I have to). But OS is where it is at, and control of that market is important, and that is why I think a *nix system will be essential to anyone serious about running a computer, because as far as I can tell M$ will have to rewrite their software just to keep up, because they made their apps proprietary to the software, which means that if they are telling the truth every processor you use will have to have a browser attached. *nix on the other hand allows anyone who wants to start up a company (or play around), do so and compete on the merits of their product.

Bugger Ian C, now you've got me thinking, I'll be up until a week past my death now. Nice essay. Shows that not everyone on this site rants and raves without putting their brain into gear.
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voidmain

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The Future
« Reply #2 on: 18 May 2002, 10:21 »
The multiprocessor and parallel processors have been around for quite some time now. And you are right, they run best with *NIX. Look up IBM RS/6000 SP, or Linux clusters. There are many machines out there with more than 1000 processors. Of course they won't quite fit in your house (yet).

Here's a link with some stuff that's been around for quite some time (many years) that might give you a head start on how to design a parallel system:
http://www.mhpcc.edu/training/workshop/ibmhwsw/MAIN.html

And some of them have close to 10,000 processors:
http://www.top500.org/list/2001/11/

But "ASCI White" is still the fastest as far as I know:
http://www.llnl.gov/asci/platforms/platforms.html

The latest trend for massive power for the buck is building Linux/Intel clusters. Many organizations are now getting their own supercomputers as they are now affordable.

Great essays by the way. Keep it up!

[ May 18, 2002: Message edited by: VoidMain ]

Someone please remove this account. Thanks...

iancom

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The Future
« Reply #3 on: 18 May 2002, 14:36 »
pkd - your comments about word processors there are spot on.

I do most of my writing now (including that little rant) in vi. It does everything I want it to do and better still it does _not_ mess with my writing like MS Word does. At work I'm practically forced to use Word since I'm working on documents with other people who wouldn't even consider using anything else, and I can't stand it.

It's constantly underlining sentences and words to tell me they're wrong (when I know they're not) and worse still, if you've forgotten to turn off AutoCorrect (which should never be on by default in my opinion) it will arrogantly decide to change my _correctly_ typed text into at best, something that is incorrect, at worse something that actually changes the meaning of my text.

All of these 'features' are just things put into word processors to ensure that file formats are generated such that sharing your files with others means they have to upgrade their software in order to read it. It's like a virus in some ways...

Even my university thesis I wrote entirely in MS-DOS EDIT on a 286 (this was before I knew of Linux). Only when I had finished the text did I paste it into WordPerfect and do the formatting to make it look pretty. Had I not been pushed for time at that point, I would have liked to have used LaTeX on the university's mainframe.

To me vi is more faithful to the term 'word processor' than the like of Word et al. It makes it very easy and very fast to type, review, change text. It doesn't try and exert its own opinions on the content of your text or its spelling. And being able to do _everything_ quickly without using the mouse is invaluable to me. Regular expressions for search/replace are far more powerful than most commercial word processors too.

Master of Reality

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The Future
« Reply #4 on: 18 May 2002, 18:27 »
hey guys, can i put your "rants" in The Abyss?
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iancom

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The Future
« Reply #5 on: 18 May 2002, 19:33 »
Yup, I certainly have no problem with that!

creedon

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The Future
« Reply #6 on: 18 May 2002, 20:05 »
WOW; this place is growing up in a hurry!  GREAT thoughts guys, but I think you're limiting yourselves.  IMHO, I think that, at some unspecified time in the future (unspecified, but sooner than we'd like to admit), there will come a point when we start to integrate our computers into ourselves.  I truly believe that we've engineered our own replacements; eventually our race won't be able to exist without our "onboard" computers, but long before that happens, we'll be using computers that are SO personalized, the OS will be our thoughts, directly connected to the system.  At that point will come the ultimate in OS freedom; everyman his own programmer/developer/operator/???
I know it sounds flakey, but as was pointed out in previous posts, look at how rapid development has gone to this point.  And there's been more than one story about different attempts to control a computer with thought.  Given control by thought, it's a tiny step to integration with the machine.  Maybe the Borg weren't so far-fetched after all, huh?
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pkd_lives

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The Future
« Reply #7 on: 18 May 2002, 21:50 »
Thanks for the links Voidmain.

I knew supercomputers were multiprocessing, but thanks that was highly interesting. But it is those supercomputers that were meant to be the model for home computing, and as such it grieves me that power is available, that we could get our hands on, and then no need for this self perpetuating rebuy every few years (I'm especially angry as I am now at the rough end of the upgrade deal).

Master of Reality - As for using the response to Ian C, that is fine by me.

Did you ever use Word for DOS - It wasn't bad? It was essentailly a text formatter. There were secretaries going around and slamming it when it became a window formatted item, telling their bosses they would never use it. Poor dears - they are probably forced into it now. I am unfamiliar with VI, but yeah I remember Edit. Used that a few times. First computer I had was a ZX81. Word cannot even create a blank file small enough to fit in it's memory (I eventually got the 16K add-on - ram wobble and all).

Hey Creedon, trust me I am not limiting myself, but I can get too philosophical, and too high end, so I try to keep myself limited to a level more down to earth (in this instance home computing). PKD stands for Philip Kindred Dick, which should explain a bit. Yes I love the idea of a self written biotechnical interface, but there is no-way I am letting anything in that has M$ ANYWHERE involved, how would you like to be walking down the steet and suddenly find you've remembered too many things and then fall over and be unable to get up without rebooting.
 
But to follow you further, I presume you mean that our thoughts act as the command structure, if that is so then our output is due to become very idiosyncratic, (ministry of silly walks anyone) which means that the commonly accepted view of the right and wrong thing to be as a human being will be overwritten. I bloody hope so, I am fed up with the BS all the time about racial crimes, and so on ad infinitum, we need something like this to force the human race into a state where we totally re-evaluate ourselves at an individual level, and start to think, instead of being led by the commercial overtures of industry. Capitalism is all well and good, but in reality it is only a small part of living your life.

There are parts of forums for fun, and parts for debate, and parts for philopsophical ramblings. The point being some people have good ideas, but are more inarticulate, and for them the shoot the comment out and argue through feedback is much more preferable. Freedom is a precious thing, it is not to be stifled because some prefer to reach their ideas through debate, argument, or quiet contemplation. This thread appears to be one of the latter - anyone else? On with the M$ hating. The future will be upon us one day.
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creedon

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The Future
« Reply #8 on: 18 May 2002, 23:46 »
quote:
Originally posted by pkd_lives:
Thanks for the links Voidmain.

I knew supercomputers were multiprocessing, but thanks that was highly interesting. But it is those supercomputers that were meant to be the model for home computing, and as such it grieves me that power is available, that we could get our hands on, and then no need for this self perpetuating rebuy every few years (I'm especially angry as I am now at the rough end of the upgrade deal).

Master of Reality - As for using the response to Ian C, that is fine by me.

Did you ever use Word for DOS - It wasn't bad? It was essentailly a text formatter. There were secretaries going around and slamming it when it became a window formatted item, telling their bosses they would never use it. Poor dears - they are probably forced into it now. I am unfamiliar with VI, but yeah I remember Edit. Used that a few times. First computer I had was a ZX81. Word cannot even create a blank file small enough to fit in it's memory (I eventually got the 16K add-on - ram wobble and all).

Hey Creedon, trust me I am not limiting myself, but I can get too philosophical, and too high end, so I try to keep myself limited to a level more down to earth (in this instance home computing). PKD stands for Philip Kindred Dick, which should explain a bit. Yes I love the idea of a self written biotechnical interface, but there is no-way I am letting anything in that has M$ ANYWHERE involved, how would you like to be walking down the steet and suddenly find you've remembered too many things and then fall over and be unable to get up without rebooting.
 
But to follow you further, I presume you mean that our thoughts act as the command structure, if that is so then our output is due to become very idiosyncratic, (ministry of silly walks anyone) which means that the commonly accepted view of the right and wrong thing to be as a human being will be overwritten. I bloody hope so, I am fed up with the BS all the time about racial crimes, and so on ad infinitum, we need something like this to force the human race into a state where we totally re-evaluate ourselves at an individual level, and start to think, instead of being led by the commercial overtures of industry. Capitalism is all well and good, but in reality it is only a small part of living your life.

There are parts of forums for fun, and parts for debate, and parts for philopsophical ramblings. The point being some people have good ideas, but are more inarticulate, and for them the shoot the comment out and argue through feedback is much more preferable. Freedom is a precious thing, it is not to be stifled because some prefer to reach their ideas through debate, argument, or quiet contemplation. This thread appears to be one of the latter - anyone else? On with the M$ hating. The future will be upon us one day.

LOVED "The Man in the High Castle".  No I'm not even suggesting that ANYTHING MS will end up in our heads.  Look at miniturization; the chip designers are talking about the speed of light being a "limiting factor" in chip design!  186,000 miles per second a LIMITING FACTOR???  Soon, we're going to not even talk about an operating system; you don't talk about your nervous system, do you?  Well, I honestly believe that, sooner or later, what we think of as computers now will be integrated into ourselves; that's what I meant by "engineered our own replacements".  We're a relativly new species, and evolution is an ongoing process- maybe we're just taking baby steps into our next iteration.  (BIG Arthur C. Clarke fan!!!)
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